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Energy Shocks and Financial Markets: Nonlinear Linkages

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Author Info
Cetin Ciner (Northeastern University)
Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic linkages between oil prices and the stock market. Prior work argues that daily oil futures price changes and the S&P 500 stock index movements are not related. This conclusion could be due to the fact that only linear linkages have been examined. Relying on nonlinear causality tests, this study provides evidence that oil shocks affect stock index returns, which is consistent with the documented influence of oil on economic output. Moreover, the study finds that the linkage between oil prices and the stock market was stronger in the 1990s.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 1079-1079
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:5:2001:3:1079-1079

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Related research
Keywords: oil prices nonlinear causality equity markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Craig Hiemstra & Charles Kramer, 1997. "Nonlinearity and Endogeneity in Macro-Asset Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(3), pages 61-76. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  11. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1999. "Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?," Working Papers 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
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