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Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries

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Author Info
Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

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Abstract

This paper accomplishes two goals. First, it introduces a powerful nonparametric test of asymmetry to the economics literature, namely, the triples test of Randles et al. (1980). Second, it documents the presence of two specific kinds of asymmetry in U.S. macroeconomic time series. Depth, or asymmetry in the distribution of a (detrended) series, is a feature of numerous economic time series; and steepness, or asymmetry in the distribution of first differences, is a feature of hours, employment, and the unemployment rate, but is absent from real GDP and aggregate industrial production. The pattern of asymmetries found provides guidelines for restricting the set of alternative nonlinear models from which to select in modeling these time series.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 2 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 15-22
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:2:1997:1:15-22

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809017, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998. [Downloadable!]
  6. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sensier, M., 1997. "Inventories and Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations in the UK," Economics Series Working Papers 99192, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rothman, P, 1992. "The Comparative Power of the TR Test against Simple Threshold Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S187-95, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Westlund, Anders H & Ohlen, Sven, 1991. "On Testing for Symmetry in Business Cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 479-502.
  14. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jeong-Ryeol Kim & Stefan Mittnik & Svetlozar Rachev, 1996. "Detecting Asymmetries in Observed Linear Time Series and Unobserved Disturbances," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(3), pages 131-143. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Inflation Asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. M. Sensier & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth," Econometric Institute Report 219, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809017, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Amado Peiro, 2003. "Conditional and Unconditional Asymmetry in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1108-1108. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Timotej Jagric, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1135-1135. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alicia Pérez Alonso, 2006. "A Bootstrap Approach To Test The Conditional Symmetry In Time Series Models," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-18, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  8. W A Razzak, 1998. "Business cycle asymmetries and the nominal exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/4, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  9. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jerry Coakley & Ana-María Fuertes & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Evaluating the Persistence and Structuralist Theories of Unemployment from a Nonlinear Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(3), pages 1078-1078. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Melvin J. Hinich & Philip Rothman, . "A Frequency Domain Test of Time Reversibility," Working Papers 9706, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Dulce Contreras, 2003. "An Assessment of International Business Cycle Asymmetries using Clements and Krolzig's Parametric Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(4), pages 1089-1089. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Richard Holt, 2004. "Two Cheers for the Aggregated (S, s) Model!," ESE Discussion Papers 56, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  16. Cook, S., 2004. "On the Detection of Business Cycles Asymmetry in 22 Countries, 1870-1994," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  18. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "On detrending and cyclical asymmetry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289. [Downloadable!]
  20. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J.B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," Research Paper ERS-2005-061-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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