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Saddle Path Stability, Fluctuations, and Indeterminacy in Economic Growth

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Author Info
Alfred Greiner (University of Augsburg)
Willi Semmler (New School for Social Research)

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Abstract

We present a macroeconomic growth model in which investment in physical capital exhibits positive externalities which raise the stock of knowledge. Treating physical capital and knowledge as two separate variables, we show that the model can generate endogenous growth. It is demonstrated that there exist at most two balanced growth paths (BGPs) with endogenous growth. If the BGP is unique it is always saddle-point stable. If there are two BGPs, the first is always stable in the saddle point sense, whereas the second cannot be a saddle point. Instead, the second is either totally stable, giving rise to local indeterminacy, or completely unstable. Further, we can demonstrate that a Hopf bifurcation may occur at the second BGP, leading to persistent fluctuations. Besides local indeterminacy, the model may also give rise to global indeterminacy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 1 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 105-118
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:1:1996:2:105-118

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Greiner, Alfred & Hanusch, Horst, 1994. "Schumpeter's Circular Flow, Learning by Doing and Cyclical Growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 261-71, September.
  2. Futagami, Koichi & Mino, Kazuo, 1993. "Threshold externalities and cyclical growth in a stylized model of capital accumulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 99-105. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Asada, Toichiro & Semmler, Willi & Novak, Andreas J., 1998. "Endogenous growth and the balanced growth equilibrium," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 189-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth(II): Five Prototype Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Cake Eating, Chattering, and Jumps: Existence Results for Variational Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 897-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Maddison, Angus, 1987. "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 649-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. De Long, J Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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