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Fractionally Integrated Long Horizon Regressions

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Author Info
Jin Lee (National University of Singapore)
Abstract

We consider long horizon regression models where the disturbance and the predictor are possibly fractionally integrated. Asymptotic distributions of the OLS estimator and of the test statistic are given. It is found that the t-statistic diverges at the rate of square root of T, where T is the sample size. Thus, it is desirable to use the scaled test statistic, as it converges to a well-defined limit, which depends on the memory parameters through the functionals on the fractional Wiener processes. Simulation studies present some empirical distributions of the scaled test statistic according to different values of the memory parameters. The proposed model with fractional processes is empirically more tractable than the model with local to unity processes, since memory parameters are consistently estimable unlike localizing parameters in the latter model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1337-1337
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:11:2007:1:1337-1337

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Related research
Keywords: long horizon regressions fractional integration empirical distribution

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  1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Testing Long-Horizon Predictive Ability With High Persistence, And The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 61-92, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708. [Downloadable!]
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