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Gains from Synchronization

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Author Info
William Barnett (The University of Kansas)
Mehmet Dalkir (University of New Brunswick)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms of structural shocks and volatility between economies through trade links, and the effects of synchronization on business cycles. We investigate the transmission of outside structural shocks and the fluctuations that the shocks generate. We identify conditions under which international economic links reduce the volatility and unpredictability of economic output emanating from shocks within the individual economies. Under certain conditions, devaluation of a country's currency causes reduction in the unpredictability of the business cycle and its volatility as seen by that country's exporters, while increased valuation of a country's currency produces higher unpredictability and volatility, as seen by the country's importers.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1323-1323
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:11:2007:1:1323-1323

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Keywords: business cycles synchronization international trade stochastic systems

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  2. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-120, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:713-47 is not listed on IDEAS
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  15. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2004. "Endogenous Growth And Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(05), pages 559-581, November. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Theo Eicher & Leslie Hull, 2004. "Financial liberalization, openness and convergence," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 443-459, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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