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A Smooth Transition Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model

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Author Info
Min-Hsien Chiang (National Cheng Kung University)
Abstract

This study presents a novel model for analyzing duration data, called the smooth transition autoregressive conditional duration model of price and duration, which considers past price changes and durations. The model enables the process of the conditional expected duration to switch in a smooth transition way, broadening the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model in Engle and Russell (1998). The model is applied to empirical data, and estimation results indicate that the process of the expected duration is nonlinear. The expected trade duration behavior on the market opening is affected by past trade durations, while the expected trade duration behavior during the trading hours is affected by past price changes and trade durations. Expected trade durations are much more persistent in the upward market compared to the downward market. Shocks to trade durations are more persistent on the market opening and gradually decrease in the downward market.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1313-1313
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:11:2007:1:1313-1313

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Related research
Keywords: autoregressive conditional duration model smooth transition trade duration

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  6. Ghysels, Eric & Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2004. "Stochastic volatility duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 413-433, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bauwens, Luc & Veredas, David, 2004. "The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent variable model for the analysis of financial durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 381-412, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Zhang, Michael Yuanjie & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2001. "A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 179-207, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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