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Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom

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Author Info
Mark Taylor (University of Warwick)
Emmanuel Davradakis (Eurobank EFG)

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Abstract

We examine potential nonlinear behaviour in the conduct of monetary policy by the Bank of England. We find significant nonlinearity in this policy setting, and in particular that the standard Taylor rule really only begins to bite once expected inflation is significantly above its target. This suggests, for example, that while the stated objective of the Bank of England is to pursue a symmetric inflation target, in practice some degree of asymmetry has crept into interest-rate setting. We argue that, nevertheless, the very predictability of the policy rule, especially when set out in a highly plausible and intuitive nonlinear framework, is perhaps one reason why the United Kingdom has, since the early 1990s, enjoyed price stability combined with relatively strong growth.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1359-1359
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:10:2006:4:1359-1359

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Keywords: interest rate rules monetary policy threshold models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & Volker Wieland & David W. Wilcox, 1997. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Perez, Maria-Teresa, 2003. "Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2219-2242, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taylor, John B, 1993. "The Use of the New Macroeconometrics for Policy Formulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 300-305, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2002. "Non-Linear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Alastair R. Hall, 2000. "Covariance Matrix Estimation and the Power of the Overidentifying Restrictions Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1517-1528, November.
  18. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Modelling Business Cycle Nonlinearity in Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: Some International and Sectoral Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 211-29, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Nobay, A. R. & Peel, D. A., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 159-164, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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