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Unemployment and Inflation Regimes

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Author Info
Anders Warne (European Central Bank)
Anders Vredin (Sveriges Riksbank)

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Abstract

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. To interpret the regimes the empirical results are compared with the predictions from a version of Rogoff's (1985) model of monetary policy. Our version is consistent with equilibrium unemployment and has the realistic feature of allowing both variables to be persistent. We find that both the theoretical and the empirical results suggest that an increase in central bank "conservativeness" can be associated with either a higher or a lower variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than in the high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the low inflation regime.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1280-1280
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:10:2006:2:1280-1280

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Related research
Keywords: cointegration monetary policy Phillips curve regime switching unemployment volatility

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Warne, Anders, 2000. "Causality and Regime Inference in a Markov Switching VAR," Working Paper Series 118, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  4. Haldane, Andrew & Quah, Danny, 1999. "UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrade, Philippe & Bruneau, Catherine & Gregoir, Stephane, 2005. "Testing for the cointegration rank when some cointegrating directions are changing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-310, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T., 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 305-313, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallet, 2003. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 105, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2006. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-101/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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