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Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?

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Author Info
Alessandro Calza (European Central Bank)
João Sousa (Banco de Portugal)

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the U.S. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy. Consistent with this finding, the impulse responses show some signs of asymmetric responses over the lending cycle. However, the results of the paper suggest that in the euro area non-linearities arising from credit market imperfections may be less pronounced than in the U.S., probably reflecting specific institutional features of its banking sector.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1253-1253
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:10:2006:2:1253-1253

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Related research
Keywords: credit regime-switching asymmetries

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  3. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F102-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christina Atanasova, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1112-1112. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Koop, Gary, 1996. "Parameter uncertainty and impulse response analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 135-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Alessandro Calza & Joao Sousa & Marta Manrique Simon, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The output composition puzzle - a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 268, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Galbraith, John W, 1996. "Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 419-29, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  23. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 2006. "Linear cointegration of nonlinear time series with an application to interest rate dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," MPRA Paper 5946, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/115, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2007. "The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 816, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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