This paper modifies an ad hoc index originated by Eichengreen et al (1995,1996), which is often used to document financial crises in emerging markets. By assuming nonlinear dynamics in a system of financial data, we successfully develop an alternative approach that not only captures the essence of the conventional index but also offers an indicator that leads the crises in-sample. This is very important for policy markers of transitional economies like Macedonia, for which the historical macroeconomic data are often inadequate for existing "early warning sign" systems of potential crises.
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Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
MPRA Paper
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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