Edmund Khashadourian (University of Phoenix) Abbas Grammy (Department of Economics, California State University)
Abstract
After detrending Iran's growth rates into stochastic and deterministic components and by decomposing nominal shocks into inflation and real output growth, 80% of the demand side shocks are found to be absorbed by price increases. This finding would cast doubt on the compatibility between inflation and growth targets outlined in the third five-year economic plan of the country. The simulation results here suggest that if the plan were constrained to a 6% real growth target, Iran's chronic double-digit inflation rate would further accelerate. Hence, expansionary policies aiming at achieving the plan's targets would move the economy along a near-vertical line Phillips curve.
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