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Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey

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Author Info
Roberto Mariano (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University and Department of Economics)
Bulent Gultekin (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
Suleyman Ozmucur (University of Pennsylvania)
Tayyeb Shabbir (Univ of Pennsylvania)
C. Emre Alper (Department of Economics, Bogazici University)

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Abstract

This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements, with time-varying transition probabilities. Experiments with monthly and weekly models indicate that real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and domestic credit/deposit ratio are the most important determinants of financial vulnerability. These variables should be observed very closely by researchers and policy makers in order to determine if the country is heading for financially difficult times.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Review of Middle East Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 2 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1
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Handle: RePEc:bep:rmeecf:2:2007:2:1

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Related research
Keywords: Markov switching financial vulnerability foreign exchange crises banking crises Turkey

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2003. "Financial Globalization, the Democratic Deficit, and Recurrent Crises in Emerging Markets : The Turkish Experience in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 5-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "Premature Liberalization, Incomplete Stabilization: The Ozal Decade in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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