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An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets

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Author Info
Mahfuzul Haque (Indiana State University)
M. Kabir Hassan (University of New Orleans)
Neal Maroney (University of New Orleans)
William Sackley (Economics and Finance Department, University of North Carolina at Wilmington)

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Abstract

This paper examines the stability, predictability, volatility, time varying risk premiums and persistence of shocks to volatility in the ten Middle Eastern and African (ME&A) emerging stock markets. Although the majority of ME&A markets only recently gained emerging status, one finds that five out of the ten ME&A emerging markets have stable returns over time. On the issue of predictability in the ME&A emerging markets, three different tests have been employed to draw conclusions. It was found that by using the three different tests, one receives slightly different results on predictability. In general, one finds ME&A markets to be unpredictable. The findings on volatility in the emerging market indicate that eight out of the ten markets show evidence of volatility clustering, but in these eight ME&A markets the shocks are not explosive. On persistence of shocks to volatility, one finds only one market to have permanent shocks; and the volatility movement affects the stock market returns. In summary, eight emerging markets have volatility clustering and one market shows positive and significant time varying risk premiums. Overall, the results fail to indicate time varying risk premium in nine of the ten ME&A markets. Although many of the emerging markets in ME&A regions are in the formative stage, it is felt that ME&A equity markets are where investors may find a good return for the investment, considering the trade-off between risk and return. In particular, the correlation is found to be low, which provides investors with the opportunity for diversification.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Review of Middle East Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 2 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 2
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Handle: RePEc:bep:rmeecf:2:2007:1:2

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Related research
Keywords: risk premium stability predictability volatility GARCH-M emerging stock markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
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  8. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 1994. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 4660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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