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The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

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Author Info
Joerg Doepke (University of Applied Sciences, Merseburg)
Jonas Dovern (IfW Kiel)
Ulrich Fritsche (University Hamburg and DIW Berlin)
Jiri Slacalek (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

We investigate the relevance of Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). In contrast to the most rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations occasionally rather than instantaneously due to the costs of acquiring and processing information. Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Our baseline stationary estimation suggests that the average frequency of information updating for European households is roughly once in 18 months. The vector error-correction model implies households update information about once a year.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1540-1540
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Handle: RePEc:bep:mactop:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:1540-1540

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Related research
Keywords: inflation expectations sticky information inflation persistence

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 164-169, May. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2006. "International Evidence on the Efficacy of new-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 0602, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models," Working Papers 0501, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jörg Döpke & Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "Sticky Information Phillips Curves : European Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 615, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 335, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Inattentive Producers," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(3), pages 793-821, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees - different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Klenow, Peter J. & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007. "Sticky information and sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(sup1), pages 79-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Olivier Coibion, 2007. "Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve," Working Papers 61, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 101-125, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2008. "A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations," MPRA Paper 8663, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jörg Döpke & Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2008. "Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence," Working Paper Series 930, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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