Does Permanent Income Determine the Vote?

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Does Permanent Income Determine the Vote?

Author Info

Jo Lind (University of Oslo)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Jo Thori Lind

Abstract

The relationship between income and voting is usually studied using current income. Instead, I estimate how permanent income affects voting and to what extent voters are forward looking. A proxy for permanent income is constructed from stated expectations about one's future economic situation. Using panel data from the Norwegian Election Study I estimate the effect of stated expectations on realized future income to compute the effect of expectations. This is then linked to voting behaviour. Contrasting permanent and transitory income, the former has a large impact and the latter has little explanatory power on voting. This supports the hypothesis of forward looking voting. A high expected permanent income increase the propensity to vote Conservative.

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Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1527-1527
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Handle: RePEc:bep:mactop:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1527-1527

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Paper
- Lind, Jo Thori, 2005. "Does permanent income determine the vote?," Memorandum 23/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Lind, Jo Thori, 2004. "Does permanent income determine the vote?," Memorandum 23/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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