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Euro Area Inflation Differentials

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Author Info
Ignazio Angeloni (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze)
Michael Ehrmann (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

We build a stylised 12-country model of the euro area and use it to analyse how differences in national inflation and growth rates arise within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We find that the main source of differentials in the early years of the EMU have been aggregate demand shocks, followed by cost-push shocks; euro exchange rate shocks come third. Among the propagation mechanisms a key role is played by inflation persistence; for plausible parameter values even small changes in persistence can produce a dramatic increase in the differentials. Finally, we also find that a tight control of average area-wide inflation around a target tends to reduce the differentials as well.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1509-1509
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Handle: RePEc:bep:mactop:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1509-1509

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Related research
Keywords: currency union inflation differentials inflation persistence euro area

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 369-406, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey, 1998. "TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PRODUCTIVITY: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates and Inflation Differentials," Working Papers 27, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  8. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," International Finance Discussion Papers 797, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Pierpaolo Benigno & David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," International Finance Discussion Papers 749, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The output composition puzzle - a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 268, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain it All?," NBER Working Papers 9984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ignazio Angeloni & Günter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy," Working Paper Series 250, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "A model of relative national price levels under pricing to market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 569-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R., 2004. "Exchange Rates and Inflation Under EMU: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 4583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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