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Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover

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Author Info
Mark Carlson (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
Galina Hale (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

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Abstract

In order to explore how credit ratings may affect financial markets, we analyze a global game model of debt roll-over in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. We find that the addition of the rating agency has a non-monotonic effect on the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals. We also establish that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have a unique equilibrium.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1375-1375
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Handle: RePEc:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1375-1375

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Related research
Keywords: credit rating rating agency sovereign debt sovereign default global game

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, 2000. "The Information Value of Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2879-2902, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2003. "Coordination and Policy Traps," NBER Working Papers 9767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Millon, Marcia H & Thakor, Anjan V, 1985. " Moral Hazard and Information Sharing: A Model of Financial Information Gathering Agencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1403-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/23, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Guillermo LarraĆ­n & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Clark, Ephraim & Lakshmi, Geeta, 2004. "Sovereign debt and the cost of migration: India 1990-1992," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-134, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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