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Exchange Rate Regimes, Specialization and Trade Volume

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Author Info
Michael Devereux (University of British Columbia)
Graham Voss (University of Victoria and Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research)

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Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium monetary model of endogenous specialization and international trade to examine the degree of specialization and trade volume under alternative monetary systems, a multiple currency system with a flexible exchange rate and a common currency system. Where demand shocks are important, we demonstrate an increase in specialization, trade and welfare under the common currency relative to flexible exchange rates. The weaker the substitution between exports and imports or the greater the risk aversion, the stronger are these effects. Where supply shocks are important, the effects on specialization and trade are smaller and ambiguous in direction, though the welfare effects are comparable to those for demand shocks. Broadly speaking, the model's results are qualitatively consistent with the empirical results of Rose (2000), which finds an increase in trade due to the adoption of a common currency.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1291-1291
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Handle: RePEc:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1291-1291

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates common currency international trade

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & CÈdric Tille, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 223-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Voss, G M, 1998. "Monetary Integration, Uncertainty and the Role of Money Finance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 231-45, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1998. "Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration," IMF Working Papers 98/9, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Kemp, Murray C & Liviatan, Nissan, 1973. "Production and Trade Patterns under Uncertainty," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(126), pages 215-27, June.
  6. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Location," IMF Working Papers 97/69, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Devereux, Michael B., 2004. "Should the exchange rate be a shock absorber?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 359-377, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29. [Downloadable!]
  11. Stephen Ching & Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "Mundell Revisited: a Simple Approach to the Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency Area," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 674-691, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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