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Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?

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Author Info
Petra Gerlach-Kristen (Hong Kong University)
Abstract

Interest-rate smoothing is traditionally attributed to the gradual adjustment of monetary policy to shocks. Rudebusch (2002) argues that smoothing can also arise spuriously if an autocorrelated variable is incorrectly excluded from the estimated reaction function. This paper presents a model which discriminates between these two explanations using U.S. data. We find that both seem to matter, but that policy inertia appears to be less important than suggested by the existing literature. Further, the excluded variable is likely to reflect financial market conditions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Contributions to Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1169-1169
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Handle: RePEc:bep:maccon:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1169-1169

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Related research
Keywords: Interest-rate smoothing policy inertia Taylor rule

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Brian Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. CARRILLO, Julio & FÈVE, Patrick & MATHERON, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," Working Paper Series WP-04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carlos Montoro, 2007. "Why Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates? A Political Economy Explanation," Working Papers 2007-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  5. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 2005. "Some Further Evidence on Interest-Rate Smoothing: The Role of Measurement Errors in the Output Gap," Working Paper Series 178, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos Montoro, 2007. "Monetary Policy Committees and Interest Rate Smoothing," CEP Discussion Papers dp0780, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. "``Taylored'' Rules. Does One Fit All?," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/06, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ram Sharan Kharel & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2006. "The Complex Response of Monetary Policy to the Exchange Rate," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/17, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored" rules. Does one fit (or hide) all?," HEI Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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