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An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Michael Kiley (Federal Reserve Board and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development)

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Abstract

A closed-form solution for quantity and asset-price movements in a dynamic general equilibrium model with non-state-separable preferences shows that the welfare cost of fluctuations and the equity premium can be large in such a model. But a large welfare loss from cycles does not imply a large gain from good monetary policy. Although monetary policy can implement the optimal allocation in a sticky-price version of the model, the gain from such activism is trivial because the optimal allocation continues to imply volatile consumption in response to productivity shocks. This highlights a distinction between recent models and older Keynesian-style models: In recent models, fluctuations are largely an efficient response to shocks and inefficiencies stem from price distortions associated with price rigidity, i.e., Harberger triangles. In the older literature, fluctuations were viewed as inherently inefficient with large costs, i.e., Okun's gaps.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Contributions to Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1089-1089
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Handle: RePEc:bep:maccon:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1089-1089

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Related research
Keywords: Non-expected utility Business cycles Stabilization policy Asset pricing

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Prescott, Edward C., 1977. "Should control theory be used for economic stabilization?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Thomas Tallarini, . "Risk-Sensitive Real Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 1997-35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9325, CEPREMAP.
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  7. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hercowitz, Zvi & Sampson, Michael, 1991. "Output Growth, the Real Wage, and Employment Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1215-37, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Basu, Parantap, 1987. "An Adjustment Cost Model of Asset Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 609-21, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles Revisited: Finite Lives and Cyclical Variation in Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 8040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jangryoul Kim, 2003. "Alternative nominal anchors: a welfare comparison," Banking and Policy Studies 4-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jangryoul Kim & Preston Miller, 2004. "The Friedman rule meets the zero interest rate bound," Banking and Policy Studies 6-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Endogenous volatility, endogenous growth, and large welfare gains from stabilization policies," Working Papers 2006-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Preston J. Miller & Gary H. Stern, 2004. "Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
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