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Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques

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Author Info
John Roberts (Federal Reserve Board)
Abstract

Over the 1995-to-2000 period, U.S. productivity growth moved up to rates not seen in several decades. In this paper, I use time-varying parameter techniques to isolate trend from cyclical movements in productivity and to estimate the trend rate of productivity growth. My estimates suggest that trend productivity growth moved up from around 1-1/2 percent in the period from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s to about 2-1/2 percent by the final observation used in this paper, the first quarter of 2001. I also estimate the trend rate of multifactor productivity growth, and find that it has also moved up -- to 1 percent by the end of the sample -- but the pick-up is not as great as for labor productivity, with the difference largely the result of increased capital accumulation. I also test whether the trend-cycle decomposition adopted in this paper can be rejected in favor of an alternative that allows the trend to affect the cycle, and, in contrast to other recent work, find that the trend-cycle model is not rejected.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Contributions to Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2001)
Issue (Month): contributions/1/1 ()
Pages: 1014-1014
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Handle: RePEc:bep:maccon:v:1:y:2001:i:contributions/1/1:p:1014-1014

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Related research
Keywords: Growth productivity time-varying parameter techniques

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  2. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 05/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ichiro Muto, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Transparency, and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter N. Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2006. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 642, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel. & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a productive decade," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Arabinda Basistha, 2006. "Hours per Capita and Productivity: Evidence from Correlated Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 06-02, Department of Economics, West Virginia University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arabinda Basistha & Charles R. Nelson, 2004. "New Measures of the Output Gap Based on the Forward-Looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 04-08, Department of Economics, West Virginia University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 662, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Miguel A. Ferreira & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Evaluating interest rate covariance models within a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  15. Álvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2004. "Growth Cycles in XXth Century European Industrial Productivity: Unbiased Variance Estimation in a Time-varying Parameter Model," FEP Working Papers 144, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
  16. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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