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Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

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Author Info
Orazio Attanasio (University College London)
Sagiri Kitao (New York University)
Giovanni L. Violante (New York University)

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Abstract

This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Advances in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1298-1298
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Handle: RePEc:bep:macadv:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1298-1298

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Related research
Keywords: capital flows demographic transition developing economies growth social security welfare

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
    Other versions:
  3. Kraay, Aart & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis & Ventura, Jaume, 2004. "Country Portfolios," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3320, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Attanasio, O.P. & Szekely, M., 1999. "Household Savings and Income Distribution in Mexico," RES Working Papers 390, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  9. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-1), pages 241-326. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2003. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 539, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 21 Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Attanasio, O.P. & Szekely, M., 1999. "Household Savings and Income Distribution in Mexico," RES Working Papers 390, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  15. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Graff & Kam Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, 2008. "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," Working papers 08-194, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2008. "Beggar thy thrifty neighbour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 933-959, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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