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Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate: Brainard-Style Conservatism versus Experimental Activism

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Author Info
Volker Wieland (Goethe University of Frankfurt)

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Abstract

Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and the degree of inflation persistence in a simple macroeconomic model that incorporates rational learning by the central bank as well as market participants. Two conflicting motives drive the optimal policy. In the static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the policymaker to move more cautiously than she would if she knew the true parameters. In the dynamic version, uncertainty also motivates an element of experimentation in policy. The optimal policy, which balances the cautionary and activist motives, is computed using empirical estimates of Phillips curve uncertainty. Experimentation matters quantitatively for moderate to high degrees of uncertainty. Nevertheless, gradual inflation stabilization typically remains optimal, that is, the optimal policy response to inflation is less aggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur when uncertainty is very high and inflation close to target.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Advances in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1288-1288
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Related research
Keywords: inflation targeting monetary policy Phillips curve natural unemployment rate optimal learning parameter uncertainty

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Research Paper ERS-2006-058-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 13892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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