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The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?

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Author Info
Edward Nelson (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

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Abstract

This paper revisits the issue of what factors produced the macroeconomic policies that led to the Great Inflation of the 1970s. I emphasize that a satisfactory explanation should satisfy two important criteria. First, it must be consistent with the record of views on the economy, manifested in statements by policymakers and prominent financial commentators. Second, it should work for countries beside the United States. I show that the monetary policy neglect hypothesis--which claims that policymakers took a nonmonetary view of the inflation process--meets these criteria. Other explanations of the Great Inflation are ruled out, with one exception (the output gap mismeasurement hypothesis), which supplements the monetary policy neglect hypothesis. The study covers the Great Inflation in both the United Kingdom and the United States, with policymakers' views on the economy documented using 1970s news reports.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Advances in Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1297-1297
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Handle: RePEc:bep:macadv:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1297-1297

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Related research
Keywords: Great Inflation monetary policy stagflation views of inflation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Arthur F. Burns, 1973. "Letter on monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-22. [Downloadable!]
  3. James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 115, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Natural rate doubts," Working Paper Series 121, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 9274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. McCallum, Bennett T, 1999. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 171-98, July.
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  16. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1998. "Expectation Traps and Discretion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 462-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "The remarkable stability of monetary base velocity in the United States, 1919-1999," Working Papers 2001-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  18. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 149-214. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Robert L. Hetzel, 1998. "Arthur Burns and inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 21-44. [Downloadable!]
  21. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1998. "Historical origins of the cost-push fallacy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-74. [Downloadable!]
  22. William Poole, 2000. "Monetary aggregates and monetary policy in the 21st century," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  23. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Dallas S. Batten, 1981. "Inflation: the cost-push myth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun, pages 20-27. [Downloadable!]
  25. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," MPRA Paper 822, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Allan H. Meltzer, 2006. "From Inflation to More Inflation, Disinflation, and Low Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 185-188, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kevin Lansing, . "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 183-194. [Downloadable!]
  5. Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2007. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2006-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Pooling Forecasts in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 1129, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christina D. Romer, 2005. "Commentary on "Origins of the Great Inflation"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 177-186. [Downloadable!]
  13. Edward Nelson, 2007. "The great inflation and early disinflation in Japan and Germany," Working Papers 2006-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Edward Nelson, 2007. "An overhaul of doctrine: the underpinning of U.K. inflation targeting," Working Papers 2007-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," NBER Working Papers 14048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Brian Snowdon, 2007. "The New Classical Counter-Revolution: False Path or Illuminating Complement?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 541-562, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  17. Edward Nelson, 2006. "Ireland and Switzerland: the jagged edges of the Great Inflation," Working Papers 2006-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area - a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 546, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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