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The Effectiveness of Fed Intervention on the USD/DM Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Zhaodan Huang (Utica College)
Stephen Neun (Utica College)
Abstract

This study empirically examines the effectiveness of Fed intervention on the USD/DM exchange market using an event study approach. The event window is defined as 4 (8) days prior/post an intervention. Based on the empirical analysis, the results show that when the Fed follows an "against the wind" policy, exchange rate movements are smoothed and may switch direction. The results are robust and hold for different event window definitions and sample ranges. To test whether the results are due to the exchange rate movement itself, we conduct a simple test using customer trades by the Fed. The results do not exhibit a systematic pattern. We also find that a joint intervention has a stronger impact on the exchange rate level when the Fed buys US dollars. The policy implication of our findings is that intervention in foreign exchange markets on the part of the Fed to impact the value of the US dollar is a viable policy option.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Trade and Finance Association in its journal Global Economy Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 3
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Handle: RePEc:bep:glecon:6:2007:2:3

Note: oai:bepress.com:gej-1135
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Related research
Keywords: central bank intervention foreign exchange market exchange rates

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  1. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
  3. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  4. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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