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Implications of Changes in Men's and Women's Labor Force Participation for Real Compensation Growth and Inflation

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Author Info
Katharine Anderson (University of Michigan)
Lisa Barrow (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Kristin Butcher (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

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Abstract

During the 1990s economic expansion, the United States enjoyed both low inflation and low unemployment. Juhn, Murphy, and Topel (2002) point out that low unemployment for men in the 1990s was accompanied by historically high non-employment suggesting that the 1990s economy was not as strong as unemployment might indicate. We include women in the analysis and examine whether Phillips curve relationships between real compensation growth, changes in inflation, and labor market slackness are the same for men and women and whether measures of "non-employment" better capture underlying labor resource utilization. From 1965 to 2002 the increase in women's labor force participation more than offsets the decline for men, and low unemployment rates in the 1990s were accompanied by historically low overall non-employment rates. We find that women's measures of labor market slackness do as well as men's in explaining real compensation growth and changes in inflation after 1983.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1252-1252
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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve unemployment inflation wages compensation

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel Sullivan, 2000. "Unemployment and wage growth: recent cross-state evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 41-54. [Downloadable!]
  3. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin Murphy & Robert Topel, 2002. "Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-1), pages 79-136. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2001. "The importance of employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise In The Disability Rolls And The Decline In Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 157-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lisa Barrow & Kristin F. Butcher, 2004. "Not working: demographic changes, policy changes, and the distribution of weeks (not) worked," Working Paper Series WP-04-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  2. Katharine Bradbury, 2006. "Measurement of unemployment," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  3. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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