Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What

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Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What

Author Info

Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan)
Jonathan Ketcham (University of Southern California)

Abstract

In United States presidential elections, the incumbent party's fortunes depend significantly on recent economic conditions, as numerous studies have shown. Many details of how economic voting takes place, however, are still not well understood. Here we present evidence on four issues. 1) Which is more important for determining people's votes, national or local economic conditions? 2) What time frame do people consider in economic voting? 3) Which demographic groups are most sensitive to the economy in their voting behavior? 4) How does economic voting depend on the political context--in particular, whether a candidate is running for re-election, and whether the incumbent party also controls Congress? Our study includes the first county-level analysis of economic voting in presidential elections. We find the answers to our four questions are: 1) national conditions, by far; 2) the most recent year; 3) blacks, females, and the non-elderly; and 4) no.

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Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1285-1285
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Note: For best results & the figures should be printed on a non-Postscript printer. Hoynes & H., . "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less-Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1199-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," JCPR Working Papers 85, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Hilary Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Winder, Robert C., 1992. "Presidential popularity and the economy : A note on demographic differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 91-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Leonardo Martinez, 2005. "A theory of political cycles," Working Paper 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
Conconi, Paola & Sahuguet, Nicolas, 2005. "Re-election Incentives and the Sustainability of International Cooperation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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