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Detecting Information Pooling: Evidence from Earnings Forecasts after Brokerage Mergers

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Author Info
Serena Ng (University of Michigan)
Matt Shum (Johns Hopkins University)

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Abstract

Forecast improvements can be expected if the two partners involved in a brokerage merger pool information and expertise. We examine four large mergers of brokerage firms in the last decade to study the incidence of and explanations for forecast improvements after the mergers. At the brokerage-level, we find that for two of the four mergers, forecast improvements appear more pronounced in subsamples of stocks for which both of the pre-merger analysts were retained in the merged brokerage. At the analyst-level, we find only weak evidence of forecast improvements after the merger. However, we find evidence that after a merger, a stock is more likely to be assigned to an analyst with overall better forecasting performance before the merger. This suggests that analyst selection can be a mechanism generating the post-merger forecasting improvements.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1801-1801
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Handle: RePEc:bep:eapadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1801-1801

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Related research
Keywords: information pooling earnings forecasts brokerage mergers

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Panetta & Dario Focarelli, 2003. "Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Italian Market for Bank Deposits," CEIS Research Paper 10, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  4. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
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  6. Genesove, D. & Mullin, W., 1997. "The Sugar Institute Learns to Organize Information Exchange," Working papers 97-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  7. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Maura P. Doyle & Christopher M. Snyder, 1999. "Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1326-1364, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Prager, Robin A & Hannan, Timothy H, 1998. "Do Substantial Horizontal Mergers Generate Significant Price Effects? Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 433-52, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Panetta, Fabio & Schivardi, Fabiano & Shum, Matthew, 2005. "Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Dan Bernhardt & Edward Kutsoati, 1999. "Can Relative Performance Compensation Explain Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9909, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Charles W. Calomiris & Thanavut Pornrojnangkool, 2005. "Monopoly-Creating Bank Consolidation? The Merger of Fleet and BankBoston," NBER Working Papers 11351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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