Analyzing of Relationship among stock markets of the US, Germany and Turkey with MS-VAR Model
AbstractIn this study, the presence of dynamic relations among stock markets of the US, Germany and Turkey is examined by means of Markov regime switching-Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model. Empirical results suggest that the MS-VAR model provides a better characterization of relation among stock markets than the linear VAR model. In addition, it is determined that regimes are obtained from the MS-VAR model can be named as bear and bull markets according to smoothed transition probabilities. Regime-dependent Granger causality test and impulse-response functions results show that the relations among the stock markets have varied due to bear and bull market periods.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency in its journal Journal of Banking and Financial Markets.
Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Markov Regime Switching VAR Model; Stock Markets; Regime-Dependent Impulse-Response Functions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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