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Expectations, Inter-Sectorial Relationships and the Business Cycle

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  • Francisco Sáez

    ()
    (Central Bank of Venezuela)

  • Fernando Alvarez

    ()
    (Central University of Venezuela and Corporación Andina de Fomento)

  • Jesús Morales

    ()
    (Central Bank of Venezuela)

  • Giovanni Guedez

    ()
    (Central Bank of Venezuela)

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    Abstract

    This paper presents a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for Venezuela that incorporates inter-sectorial relationships. With this model it is possible to assess the impact on the aggregate economic activity generated by productivity shocks or demand shocks to a specific sector and/or how changes at the aggregate level could affect the sectorial activity. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate and sectorial responses to shocks of different nature, under diverse assumptions about the inter-sectorial relationships and expectations formation. The results suggest that the omission of inter-sectorial relations and inadequate treatment of expectations can produce unrealistic results or dynamics. In quantitative terms, the omission of rational expectations seems to be less critical. However, this could change in an environment with more frictions.

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    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/63_Saez.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 63 (July - September)
    Pages: 97-147

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    Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2011:i:63:p:97-147

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    Related research

    Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; inter-sectorial relationships; open economy; Venezuela;

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    1. Susanto Basu, 1994. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 4817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kendrick, David A, 1972. "On the Leontief Dynamic Inverse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 693-96, November.
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    12. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Serra-Puche, Jaime, 1986. "A general equilibrium analysis of price controls and subsidies on food in mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87, April.
    13. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "A primer on static applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-16.
    14. Luenberger, David G & Arbel, Ami, 1977. "Singular Dynamic Leontief Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 991-95, May.
    15. Heinz Kurz & Neri Salvadori, 2000. "The Dynamic Leontief Model and the Theory of Endogenous Growth," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 255-265.
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