Loans Size and Portfolio Loss Predictability in Argentina
AbstractThe main purpose of our work is to construct portfolio loss distributions of small and large loans in Argentina using bootstrapping techniques. Annual data (covering the 1999-2005 period) from the Debtors Register of the Central Bank of Argentina over 580.000 records have been used. The work has found that, if compared to large loan portfolios, portfolio loss distributions of small loans are more symmetrical, concentrate mainly around the mean and are more stable over time. Likewise, they have higher expected losses until 2002 but a lower average from there onwards. Especially interesting for our analysis is the fact that small loan portfolios seem to generate lower unexpected losses. In turn, the expected loss exhibits a strong counter-cyclical performance in both subsets after the 2002 crisis, unlike what happened in the previous period. On the contrary, unexpected losses remain at a stable level during the crisis in the case of small loan portfolios, but increase dramatically in the case of large loan portfolios. Our analysis provides some relevant implications for policy-making.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.
Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 49 (October - December)
Argentina; banks; bootstraping; capital requirements; loans; loss distribution function; small and medium enterprises;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giovanni Majnoni & Andrew Powell, 2005. "Reforming Bank Capital Requirements: Implications of Basel II for Latin American Countries," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Peter Burns, 2002. "Retail credit risk modeling and the Basel Capital Accord," Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Verónica Balzarotti & Matías Gutiérrez Girault & Verónica Vallés, 2006. "Credit Scoring Models with Truncated Samples and Their Validation," BCRA Working Paper Series 200604, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.