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The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

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Author Info
Stephen Poloz (Bank of Canada)
David Rose (Bank of Canada)
Robert Tetlow (Bank of Canada)

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Abstract

This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Bank of Canada in its journal Bank of Canada Review.

Volume (Year): 1994 (1994)
Issue (Month): Autumn ()
Pages: 23-38
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:1994:y:1994:i:autumn:p:23-38

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Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
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Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html

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Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting inflation under uncertainty: Policy makers' perspective," Research and Policy Notes 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Research series 200003-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1998. "Vector rational error correction," Research Working Paper 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Philippe Jeanfils, 2001. "A guided tour of the world of rational expectations models and optimal policies," Research series 2001-06, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Tiff Macklem & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1995. "GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS IN CANADA: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Macroeconomics 9506003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Doug Hostland, . "CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 95-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Russell Barnett & Sharon Kozicki & Christopher Petrinec, 2009. "Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 247-266. [Downloadable!]
  8. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname \u2013 A new quarterly model for Belgium," Research series 200505-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cote, D. & Hostland, D., 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  13. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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