Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in Borovets
AbstractNearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impact of climate change, which will pose challenges to many economic sectors, including tourism. Favourable weather conditions and especially snow availability and depth are crucial to visitor satisfaction and are a fundamental factor for the development of winter tourism. The purpose of this paper is to outline the current sensitivity and future economic impacts of climate change on winter tourism in one of the major Bulgarian ski resorts – Borovets. The paper is structured as follows: firstly, the past and present of winter tourism in Bulgaria is presented. Secondly, the future development with climate change is analyzed in detail. The basis of climatological part of the study is the regional climate model REMO. The scenario simulation (2001-2050) is based on emission scenario A1B and snow models for different heights of Borovets resort. The economic meaning of climate changes is assessed by regression analyses (ARIMA models) that study the relationship between tourist numbers and meteorological parameters and make forecasts for the period 2021-2050. The quantitative analysis has been supplemented by qualitative research, based on the case study methods. The paper describes how a representative local hotel perceives its dependence on weather and climatic conditions. The relative regional vulnerability is assessed too. Finally, recommendations for policy makers concerning the adaptation to climate change are outlined.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diana Dimitrova).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.