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An Application of Fuzzy Time Series: A Long Range Forecasting Method in the Global Steel Price Index Forecast

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  • Ming-Tao Chou

    ()
    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

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    Abstract

    The global steel price index is a leading indicator in the bulk shipping industry. A study of the global steel price index combined with the establishment of fuzzy time series models can be used to predict future trends in the trading range of the global steel price index. Analysis of applied fuzzy time series data shows the following results: (1) Price volatility of the global steel price index remains positive following the global financial crisis; (2) Mode analysis shows that the 2012 global steel price index has a predictive value of 211.864 and its trading range will fluctuate between 74.577 and 211.864; (3) The group average prediction error rate is 4.40%. This paper describes the results of a study that can provide reference data to investors for hedging purposes and to operators in the shipping industry.

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    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/ref/v3-1/2013109.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Better Advances Press, Canada in its journal Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): (February)
    Pages: 90-98

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    Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:130109

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    Keywords: Fuzzy time series; Global Steel Price Index; Bulk shipping;

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