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Does Unemployment Hysteresis Exist in Economy of Iran?

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  • Saied Isazadeh

    ()

  • Mahbobeh Tabarsi

    ()

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    Abstract

    This paper aims to investigate the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis for Iran, by using annual data of actual unemployment rate, during period 1959-2011. We first apply traditional methods of unit root test without considering structural breaks such as ADF and Phillips and Perron (1988) tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment time series. When one structural break is incorporated, we again fail to reject hysteresis hypothesis. Since the mentioned tests have little power, we employ unit root tests that consider multiple structural breaks as analysis of the unemployment time series. Our empirical findings are consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Economic and Social Society in its journal International Journal of Asian Social Science.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 1717-1724

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    Handle: RePEc:asi:ijoass:2013:p:1717-1724

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    Related research

    Keywords: Unemployment; Hysteresis; Unit root tests; Structural breaks;

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gottfries, Nils & Horn, Henrik, 1987. "Wage Formation and the Persistence of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 877-84, December.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    5. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-20, September.
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