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Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics among the Sectoral Stock Indices: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Gulin Vardar

    ()
    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)

  • Gokce Tunc

    ()
    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)

  • Berna Aydogan

    ()
    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the short-run and long-run dynamics among the major sectoral stock indices of the Istanbul Stock Exchange over the period 1997-2011. Long-run relationship among these indices is analyzed by using both conventional Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration tests, causal relationship through Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Likewise, variance decomposition analysis is employed to partition the variance of the forecast error of one sector index into proportions attributable to shocks in each sector index in the system including its own. The findings suggest that all sectors show consistent and strong evidence of a long-run relationship, the short-term causal relationships between the sector indices are considerably limited and, where they exist, especially unidirectional. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that even though a high percentage of error variance is accounted for by the innovations in the same index, innovations in the variance of returns in the Banking sector are able to explain, on average, 63% innovations in the variance of the Chemistry, Petrol and Plastic, 57% of the Basic Metal and 79% of the Holding and Investment sector returns. These results indicate that the Banking sector is the most influential sector in the ISE.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Economic and Social Society in its journal Asian Economic and Financial Review.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 347-357

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    Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:347-357

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    Related research

    Keywords: Stock market indices; cointegration; Granger-causality; VECM; variance decomposition;

    References

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    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    2. Kent Hargis & Jianping Mei, 2006. "Is Country Diversification better than Industry Diversification?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(3), pages 319-340.
    3. Hakan Berument & Onur Ince, 2005. "Effect of S&P500's return on emerging markets: Turkish experience," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 59-64, January.
    4. Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2008. "Long-run and short-run relationship between the main stock indexes: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1401-1410.
    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2011. "Comovements and Causality of Sector Price Indices: Evidence from the Egyptian Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 28127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bradley Ewing, 2002. "The transmission of shocks among S&P indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 285-290.
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