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Debt and Debt Volatility: Effect on Economic Growth in Nigeria

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  • James Sunday Kehinde

    ()
    (Faculty of Management Sciences, Lagos State University, Ojo, Nigeria)

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    Abstract

    Today the major economic problem of the developing nation is the effect and volatility of debt on the real development of the economy. Debt volume continues to increase while the GDP either remain constant or increase at a reduced marginal rate. The ordinary least square regression analysis and the general autoregressional conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) were used. The study attempts to estimate the effect and volatility of debt on the GDP. Secondary data was used and the E-view package adopted in the study. The study revealed that only lag in GDP affect the GDP volume, while debt and volatility in debt does not affect the GDP. There is no ARCH effect of debt on GDP. It was recommended that debt management regime should be refocused to ensure that debt repayment is exogenously determined. Moreover, future debt should be attached to a specific capital development program to ensure the growth in the economy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Economic and Social Society in its journal Asian Economic and Financial Review.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 325-329

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    Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:325-329

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    Related research

    Keywords: Debt; Debt Volatility; Economic Growth; GARCH;

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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