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Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Drobyshevsky

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia
    Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

  • Georgy Idrisov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
    Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia)

  • Andrey Kaukin

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
    Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia)

  • Pavel Pavlov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The calculations indicate further stagnation of structural growth rates in the Russian economy from 2018 to 2024 at the level of approximately 1.5 p.p. in all of the basic macroeconomic scenarios reviewed. This points to the inexpediency in postponing structural reforms to create conditions for Russia’s economy to achieve growth rates that exceed world averages.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Drobyshevsky & Georgy Idrisov & Andrey Kaukin & Pavel Pavlov & Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2018. "Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(4), pages 305-327, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:4:y:2018:i:4:p:305-327
    DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova, 2014. "Decomposition Of Russia’S Gdp Growth In 1999-2014," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 63-66, November.
    2. Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) & Drobyshevskiy, Sergei (Дробышевский, Сергей) & Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария), 2014. "Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014 [Декомпозиция Темпов Роста Ввп России В 1999—2014 Годах]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 7-37, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. I. A. Sokolov & S. G. Belev & O. V. Suchkova, 2021. "How to Ensure Fiscal Sustainability in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 383-390, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; total factor productivity; NAWRU; terms of trade; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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