Commodity Prices over Two Centuries: Trends, Volatility, and Impact
AbstractDoes trade raise growth rates of commodity exporters less than those of industrial goods exporters? Do industrial countries gain more from trade? Do world trade booms over the past two centuries help account for the widening gap between rich and poor countries because of some asymmetric growth impact? These old questions can now be answered with hard evidence, and the answer is yes to all three. World trade booms have always been associated with commodity price booms and thus with terms-of-trade improvements favoring the commodity exporter. But whereas commodity exporters' GDP levels increased—that is, they gained from trade—their growth rates either did not increase or increased by much less than did rates of their industrial trading partners. This survey reports these results for the period 1800–1939, but it also shows how this so-called resource curse history has changed in recent decades.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Annual Reviews in its journal Annual Review of Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (08)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
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- Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013.
"Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030,"
2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia
152134, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 9779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," Departmental Working Papers 2013-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
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