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Choques Monetários e Cambiais sob Regimes de Câmbio Flutuante nos Países Membros do Mercosul: Há Indícios de Convergência Macroeconômica?

Author

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  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, São Paulo,)

Abstract

Este artigo analisa o comportamento das economias dos quatro países membros do Mercosul. O objetivo consiste em verificar se, sob regimes de câmbio flutuante, há sinais de convergência macroeconômica entre os países do Bloco. Para tanto, a simulação de choques com o uso de vetores auto-regressivos (VAR) visou comparar o funcionamento e os efeitos das políticas monetária e cambial dos países. Complementarmente, foram executados testes de exogeneidade, com o intuito de se efetuar uma análise comparativa, e de estabilidade, para avaliar a ocorrência de eventuais choques simétricos na região. Os resultados demonstraram que não há qualquer indício de convergência macroeconômica entre os países do Mercosul, pois além da elasticidade distinta entre as variáveis estimadas para cada um dos países e das diferenças na classificação da exogeneidade das variáveis, os diferentes períodos de instabilidade indicaram assimetria de choques entre os países da região.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian, 2010. "Choques Monetários e Cambiais sob Regimes de Câmbio Flutuante nos Países Membros do Mercosul: Há Indícios de Convergência Macroeconômica?," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 11(2), pages 435-464.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:11:y:2010:i:2:435_464
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coordenação Macroeconômica; Integração Econômica; Modelo VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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