Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Saldos Comerciais e Taxa de Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise do Caso Brasileiro

Contents:

Author Info

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie)

  • Marislei Nishijima

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Wagner Oliveira Monteiro

    (Uninove)

Abstract

Este artigo busca verificar em que medida o saldo comercial responde a alterações de preços relativos no período recente. O período estudado abrange os anos de 1980 a 2004. Busca-se também avaliar em que medida a relação encontrada entre saldo comercial e taxa de câmbio real manteve-se inalterada ao longo do período. A metodologia econométrica a ser utilizada consiste na análise de cointegração multivariada na forma proposta por Johansen nos seus trabalhos clássicos. A evidência obtida neste artigo com uma amostra razoavelmente longa indica que tal relação continua a existir e é estável para quase um quarto de século. A razão pela qual os estudos da segunda metade dos anos noventa colocaram em dúvida tal relação deve-se a ocorrência de um grande desequilíbrio que persistiu ao longo de toda década de noventa. O efeito sobre o saldo da abertura econômica demorou cerca de uma década para ser absorvido e claramente a desvalorização cambial de 1999 acelerou a correção deste desequilíbrio.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol10/vol10n2p333_356.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 333_356

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:2:333-356

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Tiradentes, 17 - Ingá Niterói, RJ 24210-510 Brazil
Phone: 55-11-3091-6073
Fax: 55-11-3091-6073
Email:
Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Tiradentes, 17 - Ingá Niterói, RJ 24210-510 Brazil
Email:
Web: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/

Related research

Keywords: Saldo Comercial; Cointegração e Taxa de Câmbio Real;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
  2. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  4. Maria Cristina Pinotti & Bernardo Soares Blum & Affonso Celso Pastore, 1998. "Paridade de poder de compra, câmbio real e saldos comerciais," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 52(3), pages 359-404, July.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 859-71, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:2:333-356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hugo E. A. da Gama Cerqueira).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.