Barriers In The Mathematical Modelling Of Decision-Making
AbstractDecision-making is becoming increasingly complex as the number of stakeholders rises,the number of decision-makers rises as well, the implications to consider are various and far-reaching,risks and uncertainties abound and the regulatory framework is growing increasingly complex.Decision-making is caught between the need to thoroughly document and substantiate a choice in frontof oneself and others, on one hand, and the potential traps that increase in number and impact as thecomplexity of the decision-making process increases, on the other hand. The present paper sought topresent critically the main types of downfalls that a decision-making model may face at the level of anindividual decision-maker. Our approach was to put into relation some of the most notablecontributions from various perspectives in order to obtain an integrated overview of the challengesfaced by decision sciences in formulating a both thorough and life-like decision-making model. Weidentified with this occasion three main potential weaknesses in formal decision modeling:unquantifiable factors, such as feelings or morals, excessive formalism and simplification of modelsthat make them vulnerable to paradoxes, and finally cognitive biases that deviate models from anobjective path. Though scientific literature on each of these topics abounds, it is time to integrate it andset the basis for comprehensive and multi-perspective modeling of decisions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia in its journal Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica.
Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
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decision; decision-making; decision theory; game theory; economic modeling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
- D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
- D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
- D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - General
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- Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
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