IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aka/soceco/v30y2008i2p209-225.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of EU transfers by the model ‘ECO-TREND’

Author

Listed:
  • Tibor Keresztély

    (ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary)

  • Ilona cserháti

    (ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary)

  • Zsuzsa Varga

    (ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract

EU transfers play a significant role in the long-term convergence of the Hungarian economy. The paper presents several channels through which transfers can be effective. First the modelling experiences and other techniques are summarised which can be useful to estimate the impact of EU transfers.Next we present the so-called ECO-TREND model developed in the ECOSTAT, suitable for both mid- and long-term forecasts and scenario analysis. The assessment of the model parameters has been based on standard statistical methods and on experts’ estimations. Such a model can be a useful decision-making tool for the economic policy. Finally, forecasts are presented for the Hungarian economy until 2020, which is completed by the analysis of three different macroeconomic scenarios based on different subsidy-absorption rates and different structures of expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Tibor Keresztély & Ilona cserháti & Zsuzsa Varga, 2008. "Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of EU transfers by the model ‘ECO-TREND’," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 30(2), pages 209-225, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:30:y:2008:i:2:p:209-225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://akademiai.com/content/318j62230726l138/fulltext.pdf
    Download Restriction: subscription
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:30:y:2008:i:2:p:209-225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kriston, Orsolya (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://akademiai.hu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.