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The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years

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  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D

    (Transilvania University of Brașov Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Brașov, Romania)

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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlation between the evolution of the Romanian public debt and several variables which, in our opinion, might influence it, such as: the GDP, the volume of the public revenues and expenditures, the budgetary deficit as a ratio of GDP and as an absolute value, the public debt service, the Leu-Euro exchange rate and the implicit interest rate for public debt. In the econometric test of the relation between the public debt and the fore mentioned variables we used the multiple regression method. The results obtained from testing the model have shown that the public debt is greatly influenced by the public debt service, the exchange rate and the interest rate for public loans. In the same time, the model allows forecasts regarding the evolution of the public debt according to evolution of the significant variables.

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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/AUCSSE/0039v4-013.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Annals of Computational Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 39 (May)
    Pages: 100-109

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    Handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2011:i:10:p:100-109

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    Related research

    Keywords: public debt; economic growth; public deficit; sustainability of the public finance; regression;

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    References

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Bordo & David Stuckler & Chris Meissner, 2009. "Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View," Working Papers 921, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Hauner, David, 2009. "Public debt and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 171-183, January.
    5. Rankin, Neil & Roffia, Barbara, 1999. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
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