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Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?

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  • Wang, Sun Ling

Abstract

Tests for a structural break in a time series typically involves partitioning the data into two sub-periods and compare the resulting mean rates of growth. A more formal approach involves estimating the regression parameters for each sub-period and testing theequality of the two sets of parameters. An important limitation of both approaches is that the breakdate must be known a priori. The researcher must either pick an arbitrary breakdate or pick a breakdate based on some known feature of the data. The test results can be "uninformative" because they can miss the true breakdate, or can be ‘misleading’ because the breakdate is endogenous and the test can indicate a break when none in fact exists. This paper tests for slower productivity growth in agriculture using techniques that allow for unknown structural breaks jointly with a possible unit root that can have either or both stochastic and deterministic components.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its journal Amber Waves.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): (September)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersaw:121901

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Keywords: Productivity Analysis;

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References

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  4. Keith O. Fuglie, 2008. "Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 431-441, November.
  5. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-22, April.
  6. Wang, Sun Ling, 2010. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September.
  7. Colin Thirtle & Lin Lin Lin & Jim Holding & Lindie Jenkins & Jenifer Piesse, 2004. "Explaining the Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 343-366.
  8. Fuglie, Keith, 2013. "U.S. Agricultural Productivity," Proceedings Issues, 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152336, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  10. V. Eldon Ball & Jean‐Pierre Butault & Carlos San Juan & Ricardo Mora, 2010. "Productivity and international competitiveness of agriculture in the European Union and the United States," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 611-627, November.
  11. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  13. V. Eldon Ball & Frank M. Gollop & Alison Kelly-Hawke & Gregory P. Swinand, 1999. "Patterns of State Productivity Growth in the U.S. Farm Sector: Linking State and Aggregate Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 164-179.
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Cited by:
  1. Eldon Ball & David Schimmelpfennig & Sun Ling Wang, 2013. "Is U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Slowing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 435-450.
  2. Jin, Yu & Huffman, Wallace E., 2013. "Reduced U.S. Funding of Public Agricultural Research and Extension Risks Lowering Future Agricultural Productivity Growth Prospects," Staff General Research Papers 36796, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Wang, Sun Ling & McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2012. "Impacts of Energy Shocks on US Agricultural Productivity Growth and Food Prices —A Structural VAR Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124892, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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