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The Agricultural and the External (Net Barter) Terms of Trade in Bangladesh: Trends, Movements and Relationships, 1952-2006


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  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar


This paper analyses the trends and movements of, and the relationship between, the agricultural and the external (net barter) terms of trade in Bangladesh for the period 1952-2006. The Pesaran bounds testing results suggest the presence of a cointegral relationship between the agricultural and the external terms of trade in Bangladesh. The forecasting ability of the error-correction model of the agricultural terms of trade is highly, satisfactory, irrespective of whether the level or the percentage change in the agricultural terms of trade is being forecasted. The overall results suggest that the agricultural terms of trade in Bangladesh is determined endogenously and does not seem to have been deployed by policy makers to ‘squeeze agriculture’ within an import-substituting strategy of development that has effectively ended in this country since the mid-1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Review of Applied Economics in its journal Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()

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Handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:50011

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Keywords: agriculture; terms-of-trade; cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; O24; Q11;

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  1. Ronald Soligo, 1967. "Monetary Problems of Pakistan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 635.
  2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Stephen R. Lewis, Jr. & S. Mushtaq Hussain, 1966. "Relative Price Changes and Industrialization in Pakistan 1951 - 1964," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 6(3), pages 408-431.
  6. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2008. "Responses of Agricultural Prices, Industrial Prices and the Agricultural Terms of Trade to Money Supply Shocks in Bangladesh, 1973M1-2006M6," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 287-314, December.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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