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A crise econômica mundial de 2007 a 2009 e o setor exportador de café no Brasil: análise das perdas

Author

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  • Pereira, Vanessa da Fonseca
  • Campos, Antonio Carvalho
  • Braga, Marcelo Jose
  • Mendonca, Talles Girardi de

Abstract

This study analyzed the Brazilian coffee exporter’s losses between the years 2002 and 2009, by emphasizing the 2007/09 crisis, which affected several sectors and generated instability and uncertainty about the future results of the economic activities. The Brazilian coffee exporting sector is fully inserted in this context, once it acts in the financial markets and it is still subject to the strong variations from the physical market. Thus, the central analysis dealt with the volatility of the exporters returns and was based on auto regressive models with conditional heteroscedaticity (ARCH) and on the Value at Risk (VAR) estimative. As a supplement, the effects from the external demand for the Brazilian coffee and from the exchange rate variation over the Brazilian exporter sector were presented. The results showed that price variation during the years 2008 and 2009 did not generate losses higher than those caused by other crisis, occurred between the years 2000 and 2009. The existence of exporting gains from exchange revenue was noticed. These gains were important to minimize the effects from the decline of the volume and price of the exports, due to the drop of the worldwide consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Pereira, Vanessa da Fonseca & Campos, Antonio Carvalho & Braga, Marcelo Jose & Mendonca, Talles Girardi de, 2011. "A crise econômica mundial de 2007 a 2009 e o setor exportador de café no Brasil: análise das perdas," Revista de Economia e Agronegócio / Brazilian Review of Economics and Agribusiness, Federal University of Vicosa, Department of Agricultural Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rdeeag:121295
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.121295
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