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Choques na Taxa de Câmbio Real e o Saldo da Balança Comercial Agropecuária Brasileira: evidências da Curva J entre 1994 e 2007

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  • Scalco, Paulo Roberto
  • Carvalho, Henrique Duarte
  • Campos, Antonio Carvalho

Abstract

The aim of this work is to analyze the effect of shocks in the real exchange rate in long and short-run on the Brazilian agricultural trade balance after the deployment of Plano Real. The used methodological framework was an application of Johansen’s (1991) multivariate analysis. Results indicate that two relations of long-run exist between the agricultural trade balance and the domestic income regarding the foreign income and variations in the real exchange rate. It was verified that, in the long-run, an increase of 1% in the exchange rate and in the external income leads respectively to an expansion of 2.04% and 1.95% in the trade balance. Our empirical findings reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition holds that, in the long-run, the quantum effects must surpass price effects, increasing the trade balance. However, in the short-run, the hypothesis of an existence of the J Curve was rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Scalco, Paulo Roberto & Carvalho, Henrique Duarte & Campos, Antonio Carvalho, 2012. "Choques na Taxa de Câmbio Real e o Saldo da Balança Comercial Agropecuária Brasileira: evidências da Curva J entre 1994 e 2007," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 50(4), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rdecag:156037
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156037
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    Agribusiness;

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