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Income Effects on the Trade Balance in the United States: Analysis by Sector

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  • Miljkovic, Dragan
  • Paul, Rodney

Abstract

This study examines the causes of the countercyclicality of the trade balance in the three major sectors of the U.S. economy: services, manufacturing, and agriculture. These results are compared with the results pertinent to the U.S. economy as a whole. At the macroscopic level, Sachs’ hypothesis seems to explain the countercyclicality of the trade balance, while results are mixed across individual sectors. The services sector may be explained by Sachs’ hypothesis, while results for the manufacturing sector are more consistent with the real business cycle hypothesis. The results for the agricultural sector, however, cannot be explained by either hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:47271

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Related research

Keywords: decomposition of variance; real business cycle; trade balance; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; F4; E32;

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  1. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
  3. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  4. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Domestic Distortions and the Deindustrialization Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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