IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/15451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Ex Ante Assessment Of Investments In Texas Grapefruit Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Elmer, Nicole A.
  • Thurow, Amy Purvis
  • Johnson, Jason L.
  • Rosson, C. Parr, III

Abstract

The Dixit-Pindyck model was applied to examine the hypothesis that uncertainty associated with grapefruit production costs and returns is an important determinant of Texas grapefruit growers' investment behavior. Freezes, price variability, and the effects of expanded trade were analyzed as risk factors. An investment decision rule based on a net-present value calculation would approve a 25-year commitment to a 20-acre grapefruit grove, given a 6-percent discount rate. The modified hurdle rate, calculated using an ex ante version of the Dixit-Pindyck model, is 24 percent. The major source of the risk borne by Texas grapefruit investors is from freezes, rather than from expanded trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmer, Nicole A. & Thurow, Amy Purvis & Johnson, Jason L. & Rosson, C. Parr, III, 2001. "An Ex Ante Assessment Of Investments In Texas Grapefruit Under Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:15451
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.15451
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/15451/files/33030391.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.15451?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seale, James L. & Fairchild, Gary F., 1994. "Trade Agreements, Competition, and the Environment: Gridlock at the Crossroads," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 97-107, July.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 874-888.
    4. Kyle W. Stiegert & Thomas W. Hertel, 1997. "Optimal Capacity in the Anhydrous Ammonia Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1096-1107.
    5. Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 295-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nicholas G. Kalaitzandonakes & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1992. "A State-Space Approach to Perennial Crop Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(2), pages 343-352.
    7. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    8. Amy Purvis & William G. Boggess & Charles B. Moss & John Holt, 1995. "Technology Adoption Decisions under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Appproach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 541-551.
    9. Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, 1996. "The Timing of Land Development: An Invariance Result," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1092-1097.
    10. Albers, Heidi J., 1996. "Modeling Ecological Constraints on Tropical Forest Management: Spatial Interdependence, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-94, January.
    11. Conrad, Jon M., 1997. "On the option value of old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 97-102, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lima, Dmitry & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Guerrero, Bridget & Amosson, Stephen H. & Wetzstein, Michael, 2013. "A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas-Powered Irrigation," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-12, November.
    2. Davis, Kathy J. & Thornsbury, Suzanne & Ward, Ronald W., 2002. "Consolidation In The Fresh Florida Grapefruit Packing Industry," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19815, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    4. Thornsbury, Suzanne & Davis, Kathy J. & Ward, Ronald W., 2005. "Fresh Grapefruit Supply-Chain Adjustments: Consolidation in Produce Packing?," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 36(3), pages 1-12, November.
    5. Lindsey, Jeanne K. & Duffy, Patricia A. & Nelson, Robert G. & Ebel, Robert C. & Dozier, William A., 2009. "Evaluation of Risk Management Methods for Satsuma Mandarin," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46754, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Wenbo Zhang & Wilbert Wilhelm, 2011. "OR/MS decision support models for the specialty crops industry: a literature review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 131-148, October.
    7. Hardmann, PA & Darroch, MAG & Ortmann, GF, 2003. "Evaluating Potential Investments In The Pink Lady Apple Cultivar Under Uncertainty And Irreversibility," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(3).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    2. Hardmann, PA & Darroch, MAG & Ortmann, GF, 2003. "Evaluating Potential Investments In The Pink Lady Apple Cultivar Under Uncertainty And Irreversibility," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(3).
    3. Robert Deacon & Charles Kolstad & Allen Kneese & David Brookshire & David Scrogin & Anthony Fisher & Michael Ward & Kerry Smith & James Wilen, 1998. "Research Trends and Opportunities in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 383-397, April.
    4. Barham, Bradford L. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1997. "Sunk Costs and Resource Mobility: Implications for Economic and Policy Analysis," 1997 Conference, August 10-16, 1997, Sacramento, California 197060, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 442-461, April.
    6. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2001. "Reale Optionen und Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre – oder: Kann man mit der Optionspreistheorie arbitrieren?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(08), pages 1-10.
    7. Maart, S.C. & Mußhoff, O. & Odening, M. & Schade, C., 2011. "Zum Desinvestitionsverhalten landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer: Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Unternehmung," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    8. Tauer, Loren W., 2000. "Investment Analysis In Agriculture," Staff Papers 14763, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    9. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    10. Golub, Alexander (Голуб, Александр), 2018. "Methodological Issues of Assessing Investment Risks in Projects Weakening the Dependence of the Russian Economy on Natural Resources and Providing a Transition to Low-Carbon Development [Методологи," Working Papers 071802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    11. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Paxson, Christina H & Sicherman, Nachum, 1996. "The Dynamics of Dual Job Holding and Job Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 357-393, July.
    13. Per Botolf Maurseth, 2005. "Lovely but dangerous: The impact of patent citations on patent renewal," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 351-374.
    14. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sina Atari & Yassine Bakkar & Eunice Omolola Olaniyi & Gunnar Prause, 2019. "Real options analysis of abatement investments for sulphur emission control compliance," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1062-1087, March.
    16. Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
    17. Bernard Lapeyre & Emile Quinet, 2017. "A Simple GDP-based Model for Public Investments at Risk," Post-Print hal-01666574, HAL.
    18. Thu Phuong Pham & Anh Tuan Bui, 2007. "The time to shut down," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-14.
    19. John A. List & Michael S. Haigh, 2010. "Investment Under Uncertainty: Testing the Options Model with Professional Traders," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 974-984, November.
    20. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:15451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.